We Atlantans are used to living with traffic congestion, air pollution and uncertainty about water supplies. We are less familiar with the pressures urbanization creates worldwide. The new U.N. World Cities Report 2016 makes the situation clear: The current model of urbanization is unsustainable, and cities all over the world are unprepared for the challenges ahead.
Half of the world’s population now live in cities. By mid-century, two-thirds of the world’s population will live in urban areas, an increase of more than 2 billion people. The consequences of urbanization are increasing faster still. Carbon emissions have increased by 500 percent in the past half-century. By 2030 we expect a tripling of urban land area in developing countries. Slum housing is home to more than 880 million people, and many lack access to potable water, sewerage, trash collection and other basic services. Education, health and transportation services are rare.
It’s easy to look at these global trends and say the problems are far away, but that isn’t true. The Atlanta Regional Commission projects more than 2 million new metro Atlanta residents in the next 25 years. Urban land conversion is happening at breakneck speed in the U.S., where the suburbs have been king for half a century. Atlanta, New Orleans and Miami have inequality levels similar to Abidjan, Nairobi and Buenos Aires. Lack of transportation access is a major driver of unemployment in this country. Charleston, Brunswick, Miami and Tybee Island are all experiencing downtown flooding tied to rising tides and more frequent storms.
Many of the best ideas for solving these urban problems are being developed abroad. Bus Rapid Transit was invented in Curitiba, Brazil. Land readjustment programs have helped reclaim brownfield sites and retrofit public spaces in Germany and Korea. Morocco finances housing through a unique public-private system that involves government credit guarantees and microfinance. We would do well to pay attention to innovations in other countries.
Investments in infrastructure are not optional. World-class roads, transit, schools and utilities are key to economic competitiveness as well as quality of life. China, France and Japan are broadening investments in high-speed rail that is reliable regardless of weather and faster than air travel for many. Hong Kong and Singapore have deployed internet communication technologies to digitize infrastructure, thereby improving service and reducing cost. Kigali, Rwanda, makes the internet available to poor residents on the public bus system. Public-private partnerships are assisting infrastructure investment in Argentina, India and Nicaragua.
Many of our competitors get the connection between infrastructure investment and future jobs and income. We have to do so as well.
Our urban growth and environmental challenges have global dimensions. To respond to pollution, sea level rise and security in an age of terrorism and to increase jobs and trade, we have to work together with others around the world. Environmental regulation in the U.S. will not protect our air against pollutants blowing in from overseas, or food contamination resulting from ocean dumping and farm pesticides in other countries. Our domestic climate initiatives are important, but with 5 percent of the world’s population in the U.S., reductions of carbon emissions here will have a small effect on global sea level rise unless other countries join in. Our immigration laws and import tariffs cannot protect us on their own from the impacts of failed economic policies across the globe. Joint programs with our allies, productive engagement with our adversaries and meaningful partnerships with international agencies help create the global context we need to live healthily and securely.
When done correctly, urbanization will build economic value, protect the environment and foster an improved quality of life for us all. As Atlantans we owe it to ourselves and our children to look broadly to find what will lead to the best, most just, and most sustainable growth.
Bruce Stiftel is a professor of city and regional planning at Georgia Tech. He was a member of the UN-Habitat expert group that advised preparation of World Cities Report 2016.